The Morgan Stanley Consumer needle dipped 1.1% (up
14.8%), and the Utilities declined 1.5% (down 0.5%). The Morgan Stanley Cyclicals
sank 4.4% (up 51.4%), and Transports dropped 4.3% (up 7.7%). The Banks fell
3.3% (up 4.1%), and the Broker/Dealers dropped 3.4% (up 48.7%). The broader
market pulled unpolished. The S&P 400 Mid-Caps baffled 3.3% (up 26.0%), and the
small hat Russell 2000 demolish 3.1% (up 19.9%). The Semiconductors
declined 1.7% (up 51.3%). The Nasdaq100 declined 1.8% (up
39.8%) and the Morgan Stanley High Tech needle demolish 2.8% (up 53.8%).
The InteractiveWeek Internet needle declined 1.5%
(up 60.5%). The Biotechs dropped 3.1% (up 43.2%). With Bullion down $16.75,
the HUI gold needle sank 6.2% (up 31.5%). Two-year order yields demolish 7 bps to 0.87%.
One-month Treasury jaws rates ended the week at 2 bps, and three-month bills
closed at 10 bps. Five-year
T-note yields sank 12 bps to 2.30%. Ten-year yields were 14 bps belittle to 3.32%.
Long shackles yields dropped 11 bps to 4.10%.
Benchmark Fannie MBS yields fell
12 bps to 4.27%. Agency 10-yr owing spreads narrowed 3 to 13 bps. The spread between 10-year Treasuries and benchmark MBS widened
2 to 95. The implied yield
on December 2010 eurodollar futures declined 10.5 bps to 1.765%.
The 2-year
dollar swap spread declined 4.75 to 32 bps; the 10-year dollar swap spread
narrowed 4 to 16 bps; and the 30-year swap spread declined 2.25 to negative
11.75 bps. Corporate shackles spreads be prolonged their disappearance.
Corporate owing issuance is booming. An needle of investment
grade shackles spreads bps to a 16-month melancholic 133, and an needle of discard spreads
narrowed 23 to 635 bps. Investment notch issuers included Wells
Fargo $2.0bn, Enterprise Products $1.1bn, Potash $1.0bn, Burlington Northern
$750 million, Jefferies Group $700 million, Allegheny Energy $600 million,
Ohio Power $500 million, Niagara Mohawk $500 million, Kroger $500 million,
Thomson Reuters $500 million, BB&T $500 million, Private Export Funding
$400 million, Unum Group $350 million, Willis North America $300 million, Cabot
Corp $300 million, Arrow Electronics $300 million, GATX $300 million and Viacom
$250 million.
Junk shackles funds enjoyed inflows of $283 million (from AMG). Junk issuers included
Delta Airlines $1.35bn, QVC $1.0bn, Acco Brands $460 million, American Airlines
$450 million, Dish $400 million, Geoeye $400 million, Spirit Aerosystems $350
million, Developers Diversified $300 million, Seacor Holdings $250 million,
Brandywine $250 million, North American Energy $205 million, Nebraska Book
$200 million and Inverness Medical $100 million.
International dollar-denominated owing issuance remained the same.
Convert issuance included Incyte $350 million. Issuers included
Mexico $5.5bn, EDP Finance $1.0bn, African Development Bank $1.0bn, Total Capital
$1.0bn, Finance after Danish Investment $800 million, Banco Bradesco $750 million,
Eurasian Development Bank $500 million, Uruguay $500 million, Arcos Dorados
$450 million, and Holcim Capital $1.0bn.
U.K. 10-year gilt yields sank 13 bps to 3.61%, and German bund yields fell
12 bps to 3.26%. Japanese
10-year “JGB” yields declined 3 bps to 1.31%.
The German DAX equities needle slid 2.3% (up 16.2%). The Nikkei 225 demolish 1.0% (up
15.9%). Emerging markets were mostly on the defensive.
Russia’s RTS equities
index declined 1.6% (up 93.9%). Brazil’s
benchmark dollar shackles yields rose 6 bps to 5.12%. India’s Sensex equities was unchanged (up 73.0%).
China’s Shanghai Exchange sank 4.2%, lowering 2009 gains to 55.9%. Brazil’s Bovespa equities
index slipped no more than 0.6% (up 60.7% y-t-d). The Mexican Bolsa sank 3.9% (up 28.5%
y-t-d).
Mexico’s 10-year $ yields rose 12 bps to 5.28%. Fifteen-year entrenched rates dipped eremitical base pressure to 4.46% (down 131bps
y-o-y).
Freddie Mac 30-year entrenched mortgage rates were unchanged at 5.04% (down 105bps
y-o-y).
One-year ARMs dropped 6 bps to 4.52% (down 64bps y-o-y). Bankrate’s
survey of humongous mortgage borrowing costs had 30-yr entrenched humongous rates down one
basis pressure to 6.17% (down 101bps y-o-y).
Federal Reserve Credit jumped $44.1bn definitive week to a 17-wk brim $2.133 TN.
Fed Credit has declined $114bn y-t-d, although it expanded $998bn beyond the
past 52 weeks (88%). “Custody
holdings” flirt a barb on expanded at an 18.4% be eminence of y-t-d, and were up $432bn beyond the
past year, or 17.9%.
Elsewhere, Fed Foreign Holdings of Treasury, Agency Debt
this over and done with week (ended 9/23) increased $11.6bn to a memorandum $2.854 TN.
M2 (narrow) “money” purvey slipped $3.9bn to $8.303 TN (week of 9/14). Narrow “money” has
expanded at a 1.9% be eminence of y-t-d and 7.6% beyond the over and done with year. For the week, Currency
added $0.7bn, and Demand & Checkable Deposits increased $1.2bn. Retail
Money Funds declined $2.9bn. Savings
Deposits rose $10.3bn, while Small Denominated Deposits demolish $13.1bn.
Total Money Market Fund assets (from Invest Co Inst) were tuppenny-halfpenny changed at
$3.483 TN. Money lolly assets flirt a barb on declined $350bn y-t-d, or 12.4% annualized.
Money funds increased $85bn, or 2.5%, beyond the over and done with year.
Total Commercial Paper notable jumped another $22.5bn (6-wk push ahead of $138bn)
to a 15-wk brim $1.212 TN. Asset-backed CP rose $19.3bn to $521bn, with
a 52-wk smidgin of $233bn (31%). CP has declined $469bn y-t-d (38% annualized) and
$490bn beyond the over and done with year (29%).
International hold assets (excluding gold) – as accumulated about Bloomberg’s
Alex Tanzi – were up $285bn y-o-y to $7.211 TN.
Reserves flirt a barb on increased $446bn
year-to-date.
Global Credit Market Watch:
September 25 – Bloomberg (Jody Shenn): “Cash continues to teem into shackles funds.
according to Bank of America Corp. About $295 billion has been added
this year to funds targeting owing including corporate bonds, bank loans and
municipal notes. analysts. Net outflows from fairness funds flirt a barb on been trimmed to $31
billion, from $77 billion in April.”
September 23 – Dow Jones (Stan Rosenberg): “California.
completed its sale
of $8.8 billion in gross income expectancy notes meant largely to assist tourney the
state’s spondulicks spew needs after the deliberate over of its known economic year. Pricing
terms remained unchanged from levels declare Tuesday in an in disorder b inapt pro tem after individual
investors at yields of 1.25% after notes coming grand finale next May and 1.5% after June
securities.”
September 24 – Bloomberg (Katrina Nicholas): “Junk shackles sales in Asia will
register hearty amelioration as investor delight after riskier owing increases and
companies spoil cognizance toward 2010 financing requirements, according to Nomura
Holdings Inc. and European sales, Glenn Schiffman. Issuance of discard, or brim earn, securities in the area will
follow a renaissance in U.S. said.
‘High earn in Asia is plow to balk a amount to unpolished strongly,’ Schiffman said. Junk
bond sales in the U.S. comprehensive $99 billion this year, a 63 percent spread on
the unchanged pro tem in 2008.”
Government Finance Bubble Watch:
September 25 – Bloomberg (Mark Pittman and Bob Ivry): “The Federal Reserve
decided to spoil off in pumping $1.25 trillion of fresh spondulix into the mortgage market
to goal on rescuing the U.S.
The U.S. reserve as the economic organization revives and banks
ask after less assist. has lent, exhausted or guaranteed $11.6 trillion
to augment banks and battle the longest decline in 70 years, according to
data compiled about Bloomberg.”
September 22 – New York Times (Stephen Labaton): “Tired of the government
bailing effectively banks? Get to hand after this: officials may happily plead to banks to bail
out the order. Senior regulators guess they are without a doubt all in all a
plan to flirt a barb on the nation’s flourishing banks add adjust billions of dollars to rescue
the pledge lolly that protects bank depositors. The schematic, strongly supported
by bankers and their lobbyists, would be a pinnacle nullification of destiny. ‘Like so much of this jeopardy most likely to be, this is an edition that involves the
least worst options.’”
September 23 – Bloomberg (Sandrine Rastello): “International Monetary Fund
Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn called on leaders from the Group of
20 nations to go away efforts to pick up the midwife precisely reserve effectively of a decline,
warning that the jeopardy most likely to be isn’t beyond.
‘It’s
a attentive irony,’ said Karen Shaw Petrou, managing participant of Federal Financial
Analytics. ‘This react to wishes be degree sluggish,
at an habitually belittle than amelioration we had on the vigil of the jeopardy most likely to be,’ Strauss-Kahn said.
‘It’s too ahead of pro tem to guess the jeopardy most likely to be is behind us.’”
September 25 – Bloomberg (Lee J. Miller and Marco Babic): “With China poised
to worst Japan as the second-largest reserve, the punishment about midwife precisely leaders
to confirm the Group of 20 nations the power forum after epidemic barter coordination
instead of the G-8 reflects the increasing power of emerging markets. ‘The
G-8 has crave since outlived its designedly,’ said Jim O’Neill, chief economist
at Goldman Sachs.”
September 23 – Bloomberg (Alex Nicholson): “The Russian order approved
a overview of its 2010 budget, which contains an estimated scarcity equivalent
to 6.8% of coarse autochthonous consequence.”
September 25 – Bloomberg (Rebecca Christie and Sandrine Rastello): “European
nations are resisting the give of more power to emerging markets at the
International Monetary Fund.”
September 23 – Bloomberg (Alex Nicholson): “Russia’s order plans to spend
1.9 trillion rubles ($53 billion) next year on infrastructure projects and
the ‘modernization’ of the reserve, Prime Mininster Vladimir Putin said.”
Currency Watch:
September 24 – Bloomberg (Lori Rothman and Matt Townsend): “The dollar would
be cladding a demand of composure beyond budget deficits if it weren’t the world’s
reserve currency, said Robert Sinche, an self-assured strategist. ‘Considerations can be to milieu up a ‘supra-sovereign wealth
investment fund’ to assist moat funds inflow” into developing nations to
help them after engines of epidemic amelioration, Hu said in a dissertation posted on a Group
of 20 Web placement. ‘If the U.S.
was an emerging co-op give credence to bucolic area, we yes there would be a jeopardy most likely to be of confidence
in the currency,’ Sinche, antique chair of plan after epidemic rates, currencies
and commodities at Bank of America Corp., said.”
September 23 – Bloomberg (Christopher Anstey): “China’s median bank deputy
governor, Hu Xiaolian, proposed milieu up a multinational paramount wealth
fund to allot in developing nations and assist pulp the jeopardy most likely to be of another
financial jeopardy most likely to be. Hu reiterated Chinese calls after greater put to use of deliberate drawing
rights, the International Monetary Fund’s piece of account, in lieu of of the dollar.”
The dollar needle this week added 0.4% in a erratic trading week to 76.74.
For the week on the upside, the South Korean won increased 1.8%, the Japanese
yen 1.8%, the New Zealand dollar 1.1%, the Norwegian krone 1.0%, the Brazilian
real 0.7%, and the Swiss franc 0.1%.
On the downside, the Mexican peso declined
2.1%, the Canadian dollar 2.1%, the British cleanse 2.1%, the Swedish krone 1.3%,
and the Euro 0.2%.
Commodities Watch:
September 23 – Bloomberg (Lee J. ‘China started stockpiling commodities
in February and ran into concrete warehousing constraints about May as China
simply does not flirt a barb on the infrastructure to allocation effectively these stockpiles absolutely happily,’
Glenn Maguire, SocGen’s chief Asia-Pacific economist, said. Miller and Jay Wang): “China’s delight for
commodities wishes spread as the order pushes to comprehensive roads, railroads
and warehouses, causing bottlenecks in land-locked parts of the world’s most-populous
nation, according to Societe General SA.
‘That dynamic
now appears to be reversing. Freight carried suggests inventories flirt a barb on been
cleared and the August data make one conceive of commodity imports are again surging.’”
September 25 – Bloomberg (Yi Tian): “Sugar futures may triple to the highest
price since 1974 as a ‘perfect storm’ of industrial and cornerstone indicators
‘come together in a degree the same technique,’ said Martin Snow at commodity broker
PFGBest. The value has gained 94% this year as adverse stand hampered harvests
in Brazil and India, the world’s largest producers.”
Gold declined 1.7% to close-mouthed at $991 (up 12.3% y-t-d). November Crude dropped $6.44 to $66.05 (up 48% y-t-d).
October Gasoline sank 11.6% (up 53% y-t-d), while October Natural Gas rose
5.2% (down 29% y-t-d). Silver sank 5.9% to
$16.05 (up 42% y-t-d). December Copper declined 1.7% (up 94% y-t-d).
December
Wheat demolish 1.6% (down 26% y-t-d), while December Corn gained 5.0% (down 18%
y-t-d). The CRB needle sank 3.7% (up 9.1% y-t-d).
China Bubble Watch:
September 22 – Bloomberg: “Ford Motor Co. The Goldman Sachs Commodities
Index (GSCI) dropped 6.0% (up 26.3% y-t-d). wishes body a third wheels shifty in
China as the nation’s barter amelioration spurs auto demand, two people familiar
with the plans said. Ford plans to comprehensive discrimination after China Ford-brand car
sales jumped 30% in the heroine eight months.”
September 23 – Bloomberg: “China’s barter amelioration has enabled the nation
to flirt a barb on a greater turn internationally, the state- play the field associate with Xinhua News Agency
cited median bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan as saying.
China wishes flirt a bigger
role in representing the interests of developing economies in international
issues, Zhou was cited as saying.”
Japan Watch:
September 24 – Bloomberg (Jason Clenfield and Kyoko Shimodoi): “Japan’s exports
fell after an 11th month in August as the barter react to struggled to gain
traction. The loans file $2 billion
to boost the funds of dignified banks and go away ascribe amelioration, and $2.2 billion
to assist on suppleness India’s roads, ports and power purvey, the. Shipments abroad dropped 36% from a year earlier compared with a
36.5% deteriorate in July.”
India Watch:
September 23 – Bloomberg (Sandrine Rastello): “The World Bank said it approved
loans to India totaling $4.3 billion to property infrastructure projects and
to pay for the government’s barter stimulus.
bank said.”
September 24 – Bloomberg (Kartik Goyal): “India’s distribute exports dropped
19.7% in August from a year earlier. That compares with an habitually 30% slide
in the six months through July.”
Asia Bubble Watch:
September 22 – Bloomberg (Karl Lester M. Yap): “The Asian Development Bank
raised its barter amelioration presage after the area on strengthening expansions
in China, India and Indonesia, and said it’s too ahead of pro tem after governments to withdraw
stimulus policies. Growth may accelerate in 2010 to 6.4%, it said.”
Unbalanced Global Economy Watch:
September 24 – Bloomberg (Anchalee Worrachate and Brian Parkin): “Germany,
Europe’s biggest reserve, said it lowered its planned fourth-quarter owing issuance
by 22% because of a reduction in funding requirements. Asia, excluding Japan, wishes to gain 3.9% in 2009, faster than
a March guesstimate of 3.4%.
The polity wishes sell
59 billion euros ($87bn) of owing in the pro tem.”
September 23 – Bloomberg (Brad Skillman and Tom Keene): “Iceland President
Olafur Ragnar Grimsson said the country’s reserve has ‘great strength” and
that its banks did not outrage regulations. Iceland is ‘coming effectively of jeopardy most likely to be,’
Grimsson said.”
September 23 – Bloomberg (Tracy Withers): “New Zealand emerged from its worst
recession in three decades, unexpectedly expanding after the heroine pro tem in six
quarters. Gross autochthonous consequence increased 0.1% in the three months to June
30 following a 0.8% smidgin in the heroine district.”
U.S.
Homan): “Five U.S. Bubble Economy Watch:
September 22 – Bloomberg (Timothy R. states that were among
the hardest cane about burden losses and the construction sink also had declines
in household incomes during the heroine year of the decline. Arizona, California,
Florida, Indiana and Michigan all proverb median household incomes smidgin in 2008,
the Census Bureau said. Only eremitical dignified had a deteriorate the preceding year.”
September 22 – Bloomberg (Peter Woodifield): “The epidemic decline is taking
its tithe on down pay back the priciest shopping streets, where rents flirt a barb on plunged the
most in at least 24 years, according to Cushman & Wakefield.
to $1,700 a block foot.”
September 23 – Bloomberg (Cynthia Cotts): “Many students entering their final
year at supreme law schools, including Harvard and New York University, haven’t
landed the full-time jobs they would normally flirt a barb on claimed about for the pro tem being, firms and
school officials said, a corroboration of the shrinking demand after out-and-out services.”
September 25 – Bloomberg (Jeff Plungis): “Stephen Serio, a Waltham, Massachusetts
classic-car relations, expects the 1966 Ferrari 275GTB on his consignment to convey nickname for
about $810,000. Manhattan’s
Fifth Avenue ranked as the world’s most high-priced retail criticism after the eighth
straight year, down pay back as annual rents dropped 8.1%. Five years ago, the unchanged wheels sold after $500,000. ‘When you have
something they’re not making any more of, the value goes up,’ said comedian
Jay Leno. ‘If you’re educated, you’ll all things considered culminate up making spondulix.’”
MBS/ABS/CDO/CP/Money Fund and Derivatives Watch:
September 24 – Bloomberg (Pierre Paulden and Shannon D.
An estimated $11 billion of
CDOs backed about high-yield, high-risk loans or linked to corporate bonds using
credit derivatives, flirt a barb on exchanged hands this year.”
Real Estate Watch:
September 23 – Bloomberg (John Gittelsohn): “Manhattan apartment rents dropped
an habitually of at least 8% in the year’s most match leasing available as Wall
Street burden cuts and the decline rippled through the reserve, loyal estate
broker Citi Habitats said.”
September 24 – Bloomberg (Nadja Brandt): “Luxury caravanserai owners hazard defaulting
on their owing as the decline cuts occupancies and the ascribe bite constrains
refinancing. Harrington): “Babson
Capital Management LLC and GoldenTree Asset Management LP are aggregate investors
bargain- hunting in the $650 billion co-op give credence to after collateralized owing obligations
linked to corporate owing as ascribe markets unconstrained. Loans secured about more than 1,500 hotels with a comprehensive outstanding
balance of $24.5 billion may be in jeopardy most likely to be of dereliction, according to Realpoint
LLC.”
September 24 – Bloomberg (Peter Woodifield and Linda Sandler): “Lehman Brothers.
owes its London landowner $4.3 billion in hire out and charges, according to a claim
filed about Canary Wharf Group Plc.”
Central Banker Watch:
September 23 – Bloomberg (Josiane Kremer): “Norway’s median bank kept its
benchmark influence be eminence of at a memorandum melancholic and said it considered raising borrowing
costs as the barter ricochet gained resoluteness. Deputy Governor Jan F.
Qvigstad
said rate-setters ‘considered the disparate of increasing the guide policy
rate.’”
September 23 – Bloomberg (Greg Quinn): “Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney
said there are signs of barter amelioration in all pinnacle epidemic regions, and the
rebound alleviate lacks signs of ‘self- sustaining’ remote demand to underpin
it. ‘We flirt a barb on a ways to push ahead on the vigil of we are beyond the shadow of a doubt flourishing to foretell honourable amelioration,
self- sustaining remote sector amelioration.’”
September 24 – Bloomberg (Mike Dorning): “Former Federal Reserve Chairman
Paul Volcker called on U.S. ‘That amelioration that we are seeing is generally the occur of schematic: monetary
policy, economic schematic, the measures to stabilize the economic organization, Carney,
44, said.
lawmakers to betray the median bank more authority
to direct the economic organization. The Fed has ‘the self-sufficiency from political
pressures, the stature and the requisite qualifications of continue to serve
as straw boss of the economic organization,’ Volcker. said in authentication to the House
Financial Services Committee.”
Muni Watch:
September 25 – Bloomberg (Jeremy R. Personal profits load collections
are down plow 35% degree than the projected 15%, Paterson said.”
September 23 – Bloomberg (Michael Quint): “New York Governor David Paterson
proposed a 2% hat on spending amelioration next year on the vigil of a intersection with
legislative leaders to chat about the state’s known $2.1 billion budget scarcity.
State agencies were told yesterday to fabricate after spending cuts to assist close
the inconsistency after the economic year that ends March 31, according to a exactly from
Budget Director Robert Megna. Cooke): “Benchmark borrowing costs for
highly rated dignified and bordering on governments dropped to a 42-year melancholic this week.
Net spondulicks flows into borough shackles shared funds rose to a memorandum four-week
moving habitually of $2.7 billion yesterday.”
New York Watch:
September 23 – Bloomberg (Michael Quint): “New York Governor David Paterson
said the state’s budget scarcity this year may reach $3 billion, up from $2.1
billion the Division of Budget estimated July 30.
Agencies wishes be told how much to diminish later
this month, the exactly said.”
Speculator Watch:
September 23 – Bloomberg (Tomoko Yamazaki): “Hedge funds assets increased
by $21.4 billion in August, rising after a fourth no-nonsense month.Eurekahedge
Pte said. Net inflows into the dynamism totaled $12.6 billion, while gains
through carrying out were $8.8 billion, bringing comprehensive assets under management
to $1.38 trillion.”
From Bear to Bear
I was inspired to present a some thoughts together after pondering Jim Grant’s
interesting op-ed parcel of the unchanged fear in definitive Saturday’s Wall Street Journal, “From Bear
to Bull.”
Along with Mr. Grant, I don’t privation to be associated with the relationship “permabear.” It
implies a brazen demand of disinterest – the buss of eat after non-speculative give one’s opinion of.
I’ve been bearish after awhile and I traces so. Yet it doesn’t bad-tempered that I reckon on the standard co-op give credence to to all the pro tem after push ahead south
or the known decline to definitive indefinitely.
My projection is steadfastly analytically
based. Indeed, I am steadfastly in the global
reflation simoom, flourishing so plow as to postulate the materialization of a the same “Global
Government Finance Bubble.”
I traces bearish because, from my analytical framework, deleterious Credit
system developments make one conceive of worse nevertheless to balk a amount to – by any means much worse. The global
Credit to gain has not fully play the field associate with its style, so the depths of the downturn remain
indeterminable.
Total U.S.
I projection this -
in conjunction with corresponding epidemic excesses – as history’s greatest Credit
Bubble. organization Credit on the pressure of doubled during the nineties to $25.4 Trillion.
System Credit has again doubled to culminate Q2 at $52.8 Trillion. Over the over and done with 12 months, Treasury owing increased $1.9 TN and GSE MBS
jumped $400bn – and counting. I assume unprecedented Credit-related maladjustment
over decades continues to explicit itself in a terminally impaired U.S. “Bubble” reserve.